SADC braces for more ‘failed farming seasons’

Johnson Siamachira

HARARE — The 2024/2025 Southern African Development Community (SADC) Climate Outlook  Report says the sub-region’s food producers face the increasing risk of being overwhelmed by the pace and severity of climate change.

In the upcoming farming season, most countries in the region have been forecast to likely experience normal to above-normal rainfall from October to March 2025, but some areas are expected to receive normal to below-normal rainfall.

The findings were presented at a major conference of the 29th Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (Sarcof) held in Harare, Zimbabwe’s capital, recently. In addition, the forum expects temperatures to be significantly above average throughout the 2024/25 rainfall season.

“The impacts of climate change have become more apparent in the region through increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events,” said Mapolao Mokoena, SADC Director of Infrastructure. 

“For our farmers to be productive and ensure food security, we need to build resilience to help them mitigate against climate change,” observed Makoena.

She added: “The climate variations, droughts or rainfalls, are something that small-holding farmers are facing and are going to face. Climate  change is a fact that is facing us whether we accept it or not, especially here in the SADC region.”

Mokoena said that “failed (farming) seasons” posed a real threat for food security in Southern Africa.

The Sarcof, held bi-annually, plays a critical role in identifying climate variability and change patterns, evaluating past seasons, and issuing outlooks for upcoming rainfall seasons. The meeting observed: “We are talking about when the rain does not come at the right time or the length of the (growing) season, which should be about 180 days, is shortened as a result of drought.”

At the three-day conference, member states were urged to strengthen their forecasting and reporting systems to reduce errors.

As part of the climate outlook review process of the 2023/2024 season, it was noted that the October to December 2023 outlook was fairly accurate but lacked precision in terms of magnitude.

Climate experts from the SADC National Meteorological and/or Hydrological Services and the SADC Climate Services Centre formulated the Outlook. The December 2023 to January 2024 season saw an increase in half misses due to persistent dry conditions in central parts of the region. 

According to a recent SADC report, changes to the climate resulted in the food insecure population in the region in 2024 increasing to 67,7 million people from 57,1 million estimated in 2023. The food insecure population represents 17,1 percent of the region’s population.

The El Niño-induced drought in the last farming season led to national disaster declarations in Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Significant flooding in several countries damaged infrastructure and property.

The analysis of food insecure population is based on 10 member States that provided data. These include Angola, Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. 

The increased number of the food insecure population is attributed to the El Nino-induced drought; and disasters in the region, droughts, cyclones, floods, landslides, wildfires and rising sea levels. 

President Mnangagwa declared a state of disaster in the country in April because of the drought. In response to the drought situation in the 2023/2024 period, the SADC Summit of Heads of State and Government has launched a Regional Appeal for US$5,5 billion to facilitate co-ordinated mitigatory efforts to the various disasters affecting the region to support over 61 million people.

“To respond to this phenomenon, there’s need for SADC to come up with accurate and finer forecasts that should include more parameters such as start of season, end of season and expected cumulative dry days or dry spells,” Zimbabwe’s Environment, Climate and Wildlife Minister, Dr Sithembiso Nyoni said at the Sarcof meeting.

“SADC member states should capacitate meteorological services for more accurate and finer forecasts,” Nyoni added.

However, helping small-scale farmers adopt “climate-smart” farming techniques would prepare them for even more serious challenges in the future. An important factor of good land management is the effective and efficient use of water — underground, on the surface and rain water.

To build a climate-smart system, SADC needs to find a way to preserve the water via rain harvesting, among other techniques.

Also, the region should help farmers adopt good land management practices and improve seed stocks, with drought and heat-tolerant varieties. 

Researchers could also develop mathematical models to identify genetic material that could help improve food crops’ resilience to the impacts of climate change, such as drought, pests and diseases. 

The models would also speed up the process of identifying traits, such as drought resistance, allowing breeders to grow climate-proof crops.

Lack of knowledge and resources continue to limit increased production as farmers are unable to control pests and diseases.

Time has also come to prioritise scaling up infrastructure, supporting farming innovations from ideas to market and implementing trade and financial models that are fair and accessible to farming  communities.

Agriculture is one of SADC’s greatest potential. The region should move from theory to practical solutions to drive and support sustainable innovations in agriculture. After all, it is SADC that has to feed itself. — New Ziana