The Sunday News
Dr Ronald Chipaike
THE dawn of the new era in Zimbabwean politics introduced by the resignation of former President Robert Mugabe has had an instant positive impact on Zimbabwe’s international relations, at least as signalled by the response of the international community in general and the West in particular.
The response of Zimbabwe’s traditional partners, specifically China also has been positive, showing signs of continuity in the manner in which the two countries have engaged during the Mugabe era.
This instalment looks at Chinese engagement with Zimbabwe in this new era as well as the likely Western response based on their initial signals as highlighted above.
China has a historical relationship with Zimbabwe, dating back to the Southern African country’s liberation war. At independence the Asian giant became one of the first countries to establish diplomatic relations with Zimbabwe on Independence Day.
The relationship blossomed throughout the decades with Zimbabwe accessing significant amounts of concessional and grant aid from China for the construction of hospitals and other infrastructural projects. The two countries have also worked together in the United Nations with Zimbabwe supporting the Chinese’s response to Tiananmen Square protests in 1989 and China returning the favour by becoming the only non-African country to support Operation Murambatsvina in 2005. In 2008, China together with Russia also vetoed a UN Security Council sanctions resolution against Zimbabwe following a presidential election run-off in the country. This steady relationship is what has prompted the two countries to call each other “all weather friends”.
Continuity in Zim-China relations
The visit by the Chinese vice foreign minister to pay a courtesy call on the new President ED Mnangagwa was a clear signal by the Chinese that they intend on continuing the cordial relationship that has existed between the two countries. However, more telling is the signing of a $213 million deal for the construction of the Zimbabwean Parliament, improvements to the Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport as well as the completion of the high performance computer centre at the University of Zimbabwe.
This deal which reportedly consists of concessional as well as grant funding is significant for the message it sends. Using this deal which was negotiated during the Mugabe era, the Chinese are showing continuity in their relationship with Zimbabwe and they seek to show that nothing has changed as a result of the change of guard at the top. Especially significant is the fact that they extended this funding to Zimbabwe even in the face of the latter’s difficulties in honouring her financial obligations to China.
Indeed, as a result of the economic difficulties that this country is facing, the Government has been finding it difficult to pay its creditors, the Chinese included. What this loan agreement then shows is that the Chinese seek to continue with their “all weather” friendship with the Southern African country, although this is not altruism or philanthropy since the loans need to be repaid. However, there is another significant message generated by the Chinese extension of financial assistance to Zimbabwe — competition.
Competition
The Chinese know fully well that Zimbabwe’s new President ED Mnangagwa has promised reform and serious re-engagement with erstwhile partners in the West, including the Bretton Woods institutions as well as the Paris Club. This is a “strategic” challenge to them in a country that they have literally “single handedly assisted” through aid and investment for close to two decades.
The risk of losing influence in a country that has been branded their “client state” by some thinkers, is not something they are going to take lying down. Noticing the international outpouring of goodwill towards the Mnangagwa administration, the Chinese had to take the first step in making their presence felt.
This was especially against the backdrop of the visit of the British Minister for Africa, Rory Stewart, to Zimbabwe a few days before President Mnangagwa’s inauguration, encouraging statements by Mr Boris Johnson, the Bristish Foreign Secretary as well as the Prime Minister, Theresa May, highlighting their readiness to fully engage with the country.
The United States ambassador to Zimbabwe, Mr Thomas also expressed his country’s willingness to re-engage with Zimbabwe following the resignation of former President, Robert Mugabe.
Thus, competition looms as China seeks to advance their norms of non-interference and peaceful rise as a capable international power. Zimbabwe may not be as strategically important as oil economies of Angola, Nigeria, Sudan or Ghana, but the historical relationship that has existed between the two countries make the country an important theatre for the Chinese to show their international power capabilities, mainly through the use of soft power.
The Chinese will also want to demonstrate that the Beijing Consensus can work in Africa. Although this concept was coined by an American, Joshua Cooper Ramo, and the Chinese have never explicitly agreed that their politics and economics are governed by that concept, it is possible to predict that as a global power whose rise and influence are premised on a different trajectory and on different norms compared to the West, China will seek to prove that economic development before deep democratic reforms is possible.
This is what the Chinese have also sought to prove in Ethiopia, although the situation there is a bit complex since the Ethiopian government have strategically positioned themselves to get investment and aid from both the Chinese and the West. Further, Zimbabwe is a very small market for Chinese goods and has minerals that the Chinese can get from elsewhere in Africa but the fact the new President of Zimbabwe got his military training in China also makes the relationship special and significant.
Both parties can leverage on these special ties to deepen their ties
Western states, who have had acrimonious ties with Zimbabwe for close to two decades have shown that they are ready to mend ties and move forward. Noticing that the void they left was partially filled by the Chinese, they will want to cease this window of opportunity to re-engage the country.
However, Western states, together with International Financial Institutions (IFIs) would push for political and economic reforms in agreement with the Washington Consensus. In fact this process was already underway through the Lima plan negotiated by the Minister of Finance Patrick Chinamasa with the International Monetary Fund. In this connection, various reforms have been promised by the government of President ED Mnangagwa including changes to the investor-unfriendly indigenisation policy.
This would benefit the country by attracting investment from all corners of the world. In an interview that the then vice President had with the Statesman magazine, published in January 2017, President Mnangagwa pointed out, “capital goes where it feels comfortable and warm, and if it’s cold it runs to a country which gives it better weather”. Using his euphemism, this is the kind of better weather his reforms appear to be trying to create.
What Zimbabwe should do?
In view of the new developments in Zimbabwe and the international goodwill that has followed these events, the new administration in Zimbabwe needs to take some deliberate steps to benefit from this change of situations. The first step pertains to the rhetoric used by Government officials at different events.
There is a need to make use of positive and moderate rhetoric when addressing various audiences to ensure that Zimbabwe’s relationship with her traditional partners is not damaged. Use of moderate rhetoric will also ensure that the re-engagement project proceeds unhindered.
Government officials should note that they are not activists, but torch bearers for Zimbabwe’s economic development operating in a sensitive international context. Wise use of words can change the fortunes of this country.
Given the availability of political will, Zimbabwe should also seek to institute local economic and political reforms, while at the same time re-engaging with the international community. Reform would ensure the upholding of basic human rights as well as clarification of the local investment framework.
What should be remembered is that even the Chinese, touted as Zimbabwe’s all weather friend are also waiting to see the kind of reforms that the new Government will institute. Ultimately, political stability and a liberal and clearly defined investment environment will benefit Zimbabwe and all her partners. Reforms will also introduce predictability as well as reducing the level of political risk for all investors.
